…. I like this “Moreover, don’t forget that EURUSD is an exchange rate and not an absoulte value.” It is true, sometimes ones view becomes so US centric that everything else seems better!?, but many LT factors are starting to favor the USD, demographics for one. Much of the negative bias towards USD rest on 2 factors, monetization and budget deficit – the latter leading the former. If Washington, the Treasury and the Fed (a BIG if) starts to take deficits spending seriously and in the process bite the bullet of a possible second recession, USD trend is very likely to reverse. Just my humble thoughts ! KM
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And if they don’t (find a way to put the country towards a sustainable path of financial responsibility) the dollar will continue lower until the bond market forces them (to agree…)